Tropical Storm Ernesto is blowing 60 knots and moving north-northeast at 15 knots. It now appears headed to make landfall near Wilmington, N.C., and become extra-tropical over land. But the system will then slow down and produce heavy rains over the eastern United States.
Read the public advisory here.
See the forecast discussion here.
Ernesto is heading Toward South Carolina and it's a little stronger, says the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. advisory. Its forecasted point of entry into the state has remained at or around North Myrtle Beach. A hurricane watch has been issued from the South Santee River, S.C., to Cape Lookout, N.C. Hurricane conditions are possible there within the next 12 hours. The tropical storm warning has been extended northward to Currituck Beach Light including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. Read the advisory here. Hurricane hunters flying into the storm have measure peak winds at 61 knots. Read the forecast discussion here.
Doesn't look like much has changed, at least from a Lowcountry perspective. The storm is about 170 miles away. The NHC is talking more about Northeast South Carolina and the threat of tornados in North Carolina than they are about the Charleston area...
So it's still basically good news for the Lowcountry, though experience teaches that you never trust a tropical storm. Ever. And we're not alone in that suspicious attitude: blogger Jared W. Smith, who runs a downtown weather station, has been paying close attention to multiple forecasting tools, and notices one that still gives him pause...
I’m watching the Live 5 FutureTracker, and it seems their model still takes the center very close to Charleston. Interesting…
Next up for us: 9 a.m. EOC press conference...
Tropical Storm Ernesto is located near 30.0 N, 80.2 W, roughly 195 miles south of Charleston. It's approaching at 15 mph, packing 50 mph sustained winds.
Forecasters expect it to strengthen, increase its forward speed... and take a north-by-northeastlerly turn that could sweep the worst of the effects right past our shores and dump the problems on North Carolina.
From this morning's NHC discussion:
Ernesto has about 18 hours over water in which to intensify. The intensity guidance calls for gradual strengthening... It should be noted that Ernesto could become a little stronger than indicated in the forecast after 12 hours and prior to it reaching the coast... But reaching hurricane intensity appears unlikely.
That 18-hour figure has a lot to do with the stormtrack's eastern shift that was first noted in the 11 p.m. forecast. The farther east it moves, the more time it spends over water and the farther it goes away from us. Kinda makes you wonder about the power of Hurricane Cookies...
But a reminder: Not only does this forecast not take us out of the proverbial woods, take a look at the wind advisory map from 2 a.m. (click on image to see full-size). We've got a 50 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and that likelihood could increase whenever the 5 a.m. update on the wind forecast actually gets posted (6:54 editor's note: It didn't increase. If anything, it looks a little less likely). The 5 a.m. Ernesto advisory says that the storm is pushing TS-force winds out 85 miles, and the storm looks like it will stay within 85 miles of our coast if it stays on this track.
Of course, the good news is, we're on the weak, western side.
Here's the most recent view from space, taken about 15 minutes ago. It's interesting because it shows just how complex the weather off the Atlantic coast really has been. As a Charleston area forecaster said yesterday, that system in the north east has been interacting with Ernesto, giving the tropical storm some of the characteristics of a nor' easter.
You can also see a distinct outer band from this storm just now passing over the Savannah River. We know what that means: rain.
Meanwhile, just because, here's the latest radar mosaic. From this perspective, you get the sense that we're already involved in this storm.
The big news today is that we're going to have a lot of kids at home and disrupted schedules, and most likely a lot of rain. We'll keep checking...
Here's the 2 a.m. intermediate update, for reference, as we wait on the 5 a.m. full forecast...
From a Lowcountry perspective, the obvious subject of interest has been the maintenance of that eastward jog the track took at the 11 p.m. update.
This moved the NHC track closer to what the private Accuweather service had been predicting earlier on Wednesday, and it's holding so far...
It's downright odd to think about the track Ernesto is taking -- who
thinks of a tropical depression striking right between Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario? With winds up to 38 mph in a tropical depression, that would make for an interesting visit to Niagara Falls.
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